Domestic arrivals supplement the market, and SHFE copper spot premiums continue to decline [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jul 25, 2025 11:08

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[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, as the month-end approaches, the demand for capital repatriation will put pressure on spot premiums. Additionally, with copper prices remaining steadily above 79,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness is low. It is expected that there will still be downside room for spot premiums next week. However, the ongoing destocking has led to a decline in inventory, and the decline in premiums is expected to be limited.

SMM News on July 25:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the August 2508 contract were reported at a premium of 70-180 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 125 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 79,320 to 79,580 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2508 contract rose from 79,230 yuan/mt to 79,330 yuan/mt, briefly surging above 79,400 yuan/mt, before falling again around 11 a.m. The morning Contango price spread between futures contracts fluctuated within a range of C80-C50 yuan/mt.

Spot premiums continued to decline during the day, but due to just-in-time procurement from downstream buyers on Friday, transactions in Changzhou remained stable at premiums of 30-80 yuan/mt. In Shanghai, the mainstream parity price fell due to increased domestic supply and arrivals, with transactions occurring at premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt in the morning. SX-EW copper remained firm near parity. High-quality copper remained in tight supply, but with some arrivals, the decline in spot premiums was relatively slow.

Looking ahead to next week, the demand for capital repatriation as the month-end approaches is expected to put pressure on premiums. Additionally, with copper prices remaining above 79,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness is low. It is expected that spot premiums will still have downside room next week, but the ongoing destocking, which has led to lower inventory levels, is expected to limit the extent of the decline in premiums.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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